OK, kids. Science experiment time.
Now, take those ping pong balls and place them in the water cooler tank. Once inserted, have the balls rattle around for a bit, and get the official-looking guy in the suit to pull one of the four balls out. Which team's logo came up?
That's my pick for the NFC North title this season.
Got a better idea? Let me know.
If ever there was a crapshoot of a division, it's the 2008 NFC North. Pick a team; any team. Throughout the division, there are question marks, confusion, and chaos.
There's less drama on an episode of "The Hills" than what's been going on in Green Bay the past few weeks. Detroit's got a completely new offensive coordinator, backfield and defense. Chicago's got two new offensive linemen, a pair of historically inconsistent quarterbacks signed to "deal or no-deal" one-year contracts and not one legitimate NFL first option at receiver. As for everybody's preseason NFC North favorite? The team that several pundits are donning the leading contenders in the NFC? Well, Minnesota has more hype surrounding it this season than Guns N' Roses' long-awaited "Chinese Democracy" album. Of course, their leading man under center doesn't have quite as many fans as Axl Rose.
And that's not saying much.
In truth, the 2008 NFC North is an eclectic mix of young and unproven quarterbacks, coaches on the hot seat, offensive question marks, defensive enigmas, potential locker room chasms and a never-ending list of individuals who must live up to potentially unachievable high expectations. In other words, this puppy is wide the heck open.
The defending champs
Let's start with Green Bay. Like Christmas or the first snowstorm, the Brett Favre "Will He or Won't He Retire" media circus has become a rite of passage every winter. We're used to it by now. This year, though, it seemed like the circus had seen its last hoorah. Barnum and Bailey were hanging it up. And so was Favre.
Six months later, we've got Hall of Fame sportswriters reporting about unanswered text messages from No. 4 as if that's news, interviews with Greta Van Susteren and 24-7 around-the-clock coverage on every uttered word like it's Watergate. Favre stole the July 4th sports weekend right from the Yankees, Red Sox, Kobayashi and Joey Chestnut — with the cable sports channels loading up on interviews with local Green Bay bartenders, bar patrons and uninformed Favre family members. Basically, everyone with a 920 area code not named Brett Favre became a credible news source.
This week has been absolute mayhem, too. It's made the A-Rod-Madonna media madness from seven days ago seem like a quaint stroll in the park.
Of course, whatever happens in Green Bay — whether Favre stays and starts at quarterback (absurd), Favre stays and backs up Aaron Rodgers (foolish) or Favre goes somewhere else (bizarre) — the Packers are worse off than they were a month ago. Say what you want about maturity and the growth process, but Rodgers was as ready as he'll ever be to start for the Green Bay Packers the day the 2007 season ended. This circus isn't helping the kid in any way. He's not "overcoming adversity" here. He's dealing with nonsense. If anything, it's put even more unwanted attention and media spotlight on the guy. Can't a kid just play football already?
And no matter what moves Ted Thompson and Mike McCarthy make in the chessboard that's become the Favre Game, they'll be rubbing some folks in Packer Nation the wrong way. Trade him, and Thompson's the evil villain giving away the longtime face of the franchise. Bench him for an inexperienced 20-something, and McCarthy's an idiot. Start him, and you're both men who've betrayed the young kid. Your move, fellas. Nope, not a precarious situation at all.
Yet, through all this madness remains a team that went 13-3 last season, won its division with ease, and was just a few plays away from a Super Bowl berth. Most of that very same squad returns — a year older, a year wiser — focused for a division title defense.
This Favre stuff is a circus, yes. And the fans may be split as to what they want to see happen. But if the Packers start the season 3-0 with Rodgers at quarterback, they won't exactly be losing sleep over Favre tossing interceptions for Tampa Bay or a non-contender like Houston. If he's with the Vikings, Lions, or Bears, though ... well, that's a whole other story.
Green Bay, as of mid-July, could end up one of many different teams two months from now. A Favre-led title contender, a Rodgers-led title contender, a Rodgers-led dud, a Favre-led nightmare. How's one supposed to handicap a team that's clearly so undefined? You really can't.
The offensively challenged
If Green Bay's immediate future resembles a twister, Chicago's is a murky, drizzling rain. Readers of my work over the past few months know I've not exactly been kind to the Monsters of the Midway. In short, I hate their quarterback situation, question their running back situation, get sick thinking about their receivers and don't trust their suddenly inexperienced offensive line. But aside from that, they're great!
In truth, the Bears' strength has never been its offense anyway, and the defense — with a healthy Mike Brown and an apparently happy Tommie Harris — is really not that much different than the 2006 unit that finished third in the league in defense, forced a league-high 23 fumbles and led Chicago to its first conference championship in 21 years. The D was banged up last season. They should be back in full force this year.
And what if Grossman finally delivers on a weekly basis? Or Matt Forte and Kevin Jones mesh perfectly in the Chicago backfield? What if the receivers and the offensive line do enough to get by? A lot of "what if's", sure, but who knows? Chicago could be OK, after all. Drizzling rain or glimmering rainbow of hope — you can't argue with either forecast.
The chronically bad
In the Motor City, fans aren't expecting much. After a promising 6-2 start in '07, the Lions did just as they've done every season since the Matt Millen era began in 2001 — collapsed, missed the playoffs, and finished in third place or worse in the division standings. As he did last off-season, Jon Kitna's "guaranteed" 10 wins again this year. Hopefully, he'll be able to stay on his feet long enough to see it happen. Kitna was sacked more than any other quarterback in the NFL last season.
But they shook things up in Detroit this offseason. There's hope! Gone is Mike Martz's pass happy/sack happy offense. Gone is the Kevin Jones and T.J. Duckett duo at RB. And gone is Shaun Rogers in the middle. In comes a newly-installed offense from '07 offensive line coach Jim Colletto. In comes rookie Kevin Smith, the leading rusher in the college game last year. In comes a new offensive lineman from B.C., rookie Gosder Cherilus. The Lions defense, a unit that gave up both the most points and yards per game in the entire league last season, has three new starters in the defensive backfield.
Yet, for all these changes, it's hardly been the extreme makeover from top to bottom that Detroit so desperately needs.
It seems as though each August, some pundit pegs the Lions as the NFC's "darkhorse" sleeper. There will most likely be some more talking heads doing that this year. Alas, they'll likely be wrong again.
The summertime champs
Which leads us to everybody's summertime NFC champs: the Minnesota Vikings. Minnesota has received rave reviews for its off-season activity and has been practically handed the 2008 NFC North title by pundits across the board. Rarely do we see teams get so much mid-summer hype. But there's something worth noting about summertime champions — they're rarely the ones hoisting the Lombardi Trophy in February.
Sure, the acquisition of Jared Allen solidified Minnesota as owners of arguably the most dominant offensive and defensive lines in the entire league. The Bernard Berrian pickup was a no-brainer, too. Madieu Williams adds another tough safety to an already solid defensive backfield as well.
But I'm a bit hesitant crowning any team that finished 8-8 a year ago anything, let alone labeling them as conference favorites.
After all, pressure and lofty expectations are a curious beast. Especially with a 25-year-old quarterback who's thrown just 11 career touchdowns leading the way. Keep in mind, this is a franchise that hasn't won a conference championship in 32 years; a franchise that has experienced postseason football just once in the past seven years; a franchise with a fan base as passionate as any other in the league. Minnesota fans want this. Hell, Minnesota fans need this.
Is Tarvaris Jackson going to be able to live up to these expectations? Is he going to be able to stay confident when the fans turn on him and are calling for John David Booty? It's a fragile situation. And one that has the potential to explode. As is the case with their three NFC North rivals, we'll have to wait and see.
As of mid-July, I'm going to slate the NFC North as anybody's division to win. It's truly a crapshoot.
Picking a winner? Well, your best bet is investing in some ping pong balls and a water cooler tank
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